By Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Knowing that there can be too much of a good thing, many investors are wary about how stock and bond markets this year will follow their remarkable 2009 surge.
One thing's for sure: This year won't be like the last.
"We're not going up 65% in the first nine months of this year like we did in the last nine months," said Bob Doll, global chief investment officer of fundamental equities at investment manager BlackRock Inc.
Is it 1931 or 1983?The bulls see the market mimicking 1983, the bears point to 1931. Those in the middle see many similarities with 2004. Barron's Michael Santoli reports.
Not that 2010 is likely to disappoint. "We're back to an environment where the fundamentals have to come through," Doll said. "Companies have to deliver the earnings. When it's an earnings-driven market, there are gains but more muted gains."
Indeed, the biggest difference could be that stocks in 2010 are founded on tried-and-true measures -- financial strength, earnings power -- rather than high-octane speculation. That would favor big multinational firms in cyclical and growth industries that stand to benefit from economic improvement, namely technology, energy and industrials.
Technical and historical factors are at work as well. Sam Eisenstadt, former research chairman at Value Line Inc. and a veteran market observer, wrote in a recent MarketWatch commentary that evidence points to an above-average 2010 for stocks.
"After the first nine months of the stock market's rally from recession lows, the average pace of the stock market's advance clearly slowed," he noted. "But, and this is crucial, the market tended nevertheless to continue rising." He pegs the S&P 500 at 1320 by year-end. See full story.
The stoic and stalwart weren't so beloved in 2009, when investors embraced higher-risk stocks and high-yield bonds. The defensive investment themes that made our list for 2009 were out of step in that respect, failing to anticipate that lower-quality holdings would be the most lucrative investments in 2009. Still, the strategies made money -- with one glaring exception: Long-term Treasurys. See all of 2009's picks.
This year the bulls have a good chance to retain the upper hand, though not without setbacks, and investors will have to be more selective. In that light, here are 10 ways to position your portfolio through 2010:
1. Buy stocks with a global footprint
In a slow-growth environment, bigger is better. Big companies have the clout to counter adversity and capitalize on it. "Bigger" in this case also refers to companies of any size with a broad global presence. Global companies have diverse revenues and operations, which both insulates core businesses and fosters innovation and expansion.
U.S. companies in the past decade have been impressive examples of how to operate effectively overseas. Moreover, these companies are exporting their business to fast-growing emerging markets. Almost half of the revenues for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock-index /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x (SPX 1,111, -17.27, -1.53%) now come from outside of the U.S.
"The demonstrated ability of S&P 500 companies to replicate their business [overseas] and earn attractive margins and returns abroad is the most important development of the decade," wrote David Bianco, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's chief U.S. equity strategist, in a December report.
"The global economy is going to continue to integrate," added Gary Motyl, chief investment officer of Franklin Resources' Templeton Global Equity Group. "Companies that have the best managements, strategies and balance sheets are going to take advantage of this." He said Pfizer Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!pfe/quotes/nls/pfe (PFE 16.46, -0.28, -1.67%) , is a good example. "What isn't reflected in the stock price," Motyl said, "is this company's ability to move into the emerging markets."
2. Use stock dividends as a bond substitute
Shares of companies with strong balance sheets and stable earnings growth are not only better-equipped to handle the economy's waves, but their dividend income is a welcome alternative to the uncertainty swirling around bonds.
"Current dividend yields relative to bond yields provide an attractive opportunity for investors," wrote Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, in a recent research report. "A prolonged period of low bond yields may encourage investors to begin seeking alternative ways to increase income, and high-quality, dividend-paying stocks may be a solution."
Oppenheimer's recommended stocks fitting this bill include Johnson & Johnson /quotes/comstock/13*!jnj/quotes/nls/jnj (JNJ 63.31, -0.09, -0.14%) , AT&T Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!t/quotes/nls/t (T 25.10, -0.04, -0.16%) , Abbott Laboratories /quotes/comstock/13*!abt/quotes/nls/abt (ABT 48.72, -0.28, -0.57%) and United Technologies Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!utx/quotes/nls/utx (UTX 69.46, -1.78, -2.50%) .
3. Buy larger-cap index funds
Large-cap stocks lagged their small-cap and midcap counterparts in 2009, but many observers say that big firms' time has come.
"Large, blue-chip companies are the last remaining pocket of undervaluation," said Keith Goodard, co-manager of Capital Advisors Growth Fund /quotes/comstock/10r!ciaox (CIAOX 15.15, -0.22, -1.43%) . "A basket of blue-chip companies with a 3% to 4% dividend is not a bad place to be."
If larger-company U.S. stocks outperform small-caps, then shareholders could do well holding index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that track plain-vanilla, large-cap benchmarks such as the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (INDU 10,380, -139.89, -1.33%) and the S&P 100 /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:oe\x (OEX 506.75, -7.05, -1.37%) .
Many S&P 500 companies, for example, provide global exposure, high-quality earnings, seasoned management and attractive dividends -- attributes that investors could increasingly value as the year unfolds.
"We believe that 2010 will be another positive year for stocks, and we established a 2010 price target of 1,300 for the S&P 500," Oppenheimer's Belski said. That would mean a gain of almost 14% for the index from Friday's close of 1145 -- a standout return for the market.
4. Stick with technology stocks
Technology funds were the best-performing U.S. sector in 2009, up about 63%, and technology is again the largest S&P 500 component.
That's a cautionary note, but the sector's earnings prospects are nonetheless strong. S&P analysts are among those upbeat on tech stocks. "The sector is poised to benefit from a healthier global economy, a notable PC replacement cycle and considerable international exposure," the analysts noted in a recent report.
"They've got robust balance sheets, phenomenal free cash flow, and while the stocks have done well and valuations aren't as cheap, there is room for them to outperform," BlackRock's Doll said of the tech sector. He favors computer software and services companies over hardware and semiconductor firms, namely Microsoft Corp. /quotes/comstock/15*!msft/quotes/nls/msft (MSFT 28.08, -0.90, -3.11%) , IBM /quotes/comstock/13*!ibm/quotes/nls/ibm (IBM 122.10, -1.82, -1.47%) and Oracle Corp. /quotes/comstock/15*!orcl/quotes/nls/orcl (ORCL 23.41, -0.50, -2.09%) .
5. Plug into the energy sector
Energy stocks have been on a tear so far this year. Energy-sector mutual funds are up almost 7% on average, on top of a 46% gain in 2009, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc. The energy bulls are banking on a continuing global recovery and strong emerging-market demand, and strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch are squarely in that camp.
"Energy is our preferred global recovery play" and could be the year's best-performing sector, depending on oil prices, Merrill strategists wrote in a recent research report.
S&P analysts are also bullish, particularly for companies in the integrated oil and gas industry. But it's a tempered call that hinges in part on the global economy making a smooth transition from one that has relied on government stimulus to one that is earnings-driven. S&P's favorite energy stocks include Chevron Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!cvx/quotes/nls/cvx (CVX 77.10, -0.10, -0.13%) , Exxon Mobil Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!xom/quotes/nls/xom (XOM 63.70, -0.19, -0.30%) and Superior Energy Services Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!spn/quotes/nls/spn (SPN 24.05, -1.41, -5.54%)
6. Build on the industrials sector
S&P analysts also are upbeat on the industrials sector -- another economic recovery bellwether.
"We recommend overweighting this sector, as we think the global economy will be stronger in 2010 than in 2009, and that this will be reflected in this cyclical sector's profitability," strategists wrote in a December report. "Also, from a valuation standpoint, we believe the sector offers better value than other economically sensitive areas." Two industrials stocks S&P likes are Fastenal Co. /quotes/comstock/15*!fast/quotes/nls/fast (FAST 50.22, -1.13, -2.20%) and C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!chrw/quotes/nls/chrw (CHRW 57.83, -1.33, -2.25%)
At Oppenheimer, Belski favors industrials that tend to benefit in the early stages of an economic recovery, including building products and air freight. He also likes areas of the sector that profit from international growth, such as industrial machinery, aerospace and defense and electrical manufacturing. Domestically, Belski's research points to companies involved with infrastructure projects.
Specific stocks on Oppenheimer's list include FedEx Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!fdx/quotes/nls/fdx (FDX 83.14, -2.85, -3.31%) , Danaher Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!dhr/quotes/nls/dhr (DHR 79.81, -0.45, -0.56%) , Graco Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!ggg/quotes/nls/ggg (GGG 32.43, 0.00, 0.00%) , Roper Industries Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!rop/quotes/nls/rop (ROP 57.48, -0.50, -0.86%) , Pentair Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!pnr/quotes/nls/pnr (PNR 32.04, -0.97, -2.94%) , Emerson Electric Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!emr/quotes/nls/emr (EMR 48.47, +0.03, +0.06%) and /quotes/comstock/13*!wm/quotes/nls/wm (WM 32.86, -0.23, -0.70%)
7. Take the M&A train
Companies in solid financial shape, flush with cash and little debt, are poised to take advantage of weaker rivals. They can grow earnings and market share organically or buy their way in; with many acquisition targets still priced attractively, corporate managements likely will choose the latter path.
"Companies are taking their business to where the opportunities are," said Rob McIver, co-manager of Jensen Portfolio /quotes/comstock/10r!jensx (JENSX 24.42, -0.34, -1.37%) . "They're setting up shop to expand their overseas presence or buying competitors through sensible acquisitions."
"It's an opportunity to leapfrog the competition," added Templeton's Motyl. "They're positioning themselves for the next 10 or 20 years."
"Mergers and acquisitions will come back to life," said Steven DeSanctis, small-cap strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch, in a recent research report. He's particularly bullish on M&A prospects for the cash-rich technology, health care and industrial sectors, where acquisitive-minded companies "do not need to borrow from the credit markets or issue additional shares."
8. Pocket the U.S. dollar
The greenback is making a comeback. PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish /quotes/comstock/13*!uup/quotes/nls/uup (UUP 24.70, -0.11, -0.45%) , a proxy for a stronger U.S. dollar, is up more than 2% in the past month, narrowing its 12-month loss to 8%, according to Morningstar.
"We remain optimistic on the U.S. dollar longer term," Oppenheimer's Belski noted. "Long-term currency movements are a reflection of relative global economic growth. Since the U.S. was the first economy into trouble, we expect it to be the first to recover and we believe that dollar strength will result."
"The dollar remains the world's reserve currency and safe haven," added investment strategist Gary Shilling in his 2010 outlook report, though his recommendation is based on a bearish view that dollar strength will stem from global economic weakness.
9. Avoid long-term government bonds
Before the year is out, many analysts expect the Fed to whisk away the punchbowl and hike short-term interest rates. Already the markets are saying the U.S. government is keeping rates artificially low, as telegraphed through higher yields and corresponding lower prices for longer-dated Treasurys.
Long-term government funds were the worst-performing bond category of the past 12 months, down 14%, and experts don't expect any improvement in the year ahead.
"Returns on long-term Treasurys ... will be modestly negative," BofA Merrill Lynch investment strategists said in a recent report. The firm sees the 10-year Treasury yielding 4.25% and the 30-year at 4.95% this year.
Merrill strategists recommend rotating out of U.S. Treasurys into U.S. investment-grade corporate credits. In addition, materials stocks and emerging-markets tend to outperform when Treasury yields rise, the firm said.
"All of the smoke signals we're hearing from the various Fed presidents points to the unwinding of the liquidity we have put into the system; it's just a question of when," added Marilyn Cohen, president of Envision Capital Management, a Los Angeles-based bond specialist.
Cohen advised investments in shorter-term bonds, with a goal of reinvesting at higher yields later. She added: "Anybody who doesn't read these smoke signals is going to be very sad."
10. Embrace emerging-markets consumers
"The engine of growth has shifted to the emerging markets," said Jim Awad, managing director of New York-based investment firm Zephyr Management. "You want to make emerging markets a core investment position -- bigger than it's ever been."
Of course, emerging markets have enjoyed a tremendous run. Diversified emerging markets funds were up 74% in the year through Jan. 7 and averaged 15% annualized gains over five years, according to Morningstar.
While caution is in order from a valuation perspective, emerging markets are still eye-catching, especially if you focus on these regions' growing middle class.
Rising living standards are prevalent across the developing world. Analysts at BofA Merrill Lynch suggest that investors tap into emerging-market consumers through shares of large-cap emerging-market financial and consumer-related stocks, as well as U.S., European and Japanese multinationals. A diversified emerging-markets ETF is worth considering, such as iShares MSCI Emerging Markets /quotes/comstock/13*!eem/quotes/nls/eem (EEM 38.16, +0.17, +0.45%) or Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock /quotes/comstock/13*!vwo/quotes/nls/vwo (VWO 38.41, +0.04, +0.10%) .
Another avenue to the emerging-market consumer, the Merrill analysts said, are energy providers and ETFs with exposure to U.S. energy and global energy stocks. Two examples: Energy Select Sector SPDR /quotes/comstock/13*!xle/quotes/nls/xle (XLE 54.98, -1.07, -1.92%) and iShares S&P Global Energy /quotes/comstock/13*!ixc/quotes/nls/ixc (IXC 32.70, +0.14, +0.43%) .
As Jose Costa Buck, manager of T. Rowe Price Latin America Fund /quotes/comstock/10r!prlax (PRLAX 43.48, -0.23, -0.53%) , noted in a recent report to shareholders about Brazil, the region's largest economy: "Sensible economic, political and regulatory reforms have resulted in years of low inflation, economic stability and income growth that have brought millions of new consumers to the marketplace."
Jonathan Burton is an assistant personal finance editor for MarketWatch, based in San Francisco.